DA close to overtaking the ANC as South Africa’s largest party

The Democratic Alliance’s internal polling shows it is on the verge of overtaking the ANC as South Africa’s largest party.

The latest national polling places the Democratic Alliance at 28.4%, 1.2 percentage points behind the ANC on 29.6%.

The gap between the two parties has narrowed to the point where the DA is now within striking distance of becoming South Africa’s largest political party.

“The DA is also on track to emerge as the largest party in many of South Africa’s major metros,” the party said in a press statement.

“For the first time in our democratic history, the prospect of the DA overtaking the ANC is not a distant ambition. It is within reach.”

“The ANC’s decades-long dominance is collapsing, and millions of South Africans are looking to the DA as a credible alternative that can govern.”

It should be noted that the DA’s internal polls look flattering towards the party. The data from the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense appear to differ.

Their polling showed that the ANC enjoys 32% of the vote, well ahead of the DA’s 26%, MK Party’s 12%, and the EFF’s 8%.

However, despite this data looking better than the internal DA polling, it does not point to a healthy situation for the ANC.

The ANC’s support declined from 40% to 32% since the May 2024 general elections, and the DA’s support improved from 22% to 26%.

The party enjoys strong support only among the poorest South Africans, but has virtually no presence among middle- to higher-income earners.

The Common Sense’s Frans Cronje explained that the ANC’s voter support tracks economic growth and living standards.

The ANC’s drop to the 30s is a direct consequence of long-term economic stagnation, which included the country’s anaemic 1% annual GDP growth.

He explained that most voters are pragmatic rather than ideological, and that the data on voting patterns illustrate that.

The DA, by comparison, benefits from the ANC’s decline, as it is seen as an alternative by middle-class South Africans seeking improved governance and services.

Despite growing support, the DA still operates primarily as a middle-class party, which means its growth is structurally capped.

Despite its mostly middle-class support, the DA has made inroads into the black vote across South Africa.

The largest racial block among Democratic Alliance voters is now Black South Africans at 36%. White voters make up 35%.

The Common Sense national polling results