ANC collapsing in front of everyone’s eyes

The African National Congress (ANC) is collapsing, with dwindling support and many organisations pulling their support ahead of the 2026 local government elections.

The ANC has won every national election in democratic South Africa since 1994. However, its share of the vote has plummeted in recent years.

Its support rose from 63% in 1994 to 70% in 2004, but started to plummet under former President Jacob Zuma and continued its decline under President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Between 2019 and 2024, it fell from 58% to 40%, the first time the ANC did not have a majority in Parliament. This forced it to form a government of national unity (GNU).

Recent by-elections and polling suggest that this decline is continuing and will struggle in the 2026 local government elections in November 2026.

The final wave of by-elections ahead of the elections has been completed, and the results do not look good for the ANC.

One of South Africa’s top political polling experts, Gareth van Onselen, said that the data showed ANC support is dwindling.

His analysis relies on a dataset spanning 25 years that tracks roughly 2,500 municipal by-elections across South Africa.

The ANC’s support shows a severe, steady downward trend, particularly inside South Africa’s major metropolitan areas.

Marius Roodt, Deputy Editor of The Common Sense, explained that there is a close link between the results of by-elections and local government elections.

There is a four-percentage-point variance between the ANC’s average by-election cycle performance and its results in the subsequent general local government election.

With the ANC’s by-election average sitting around 35%, the model projects their actual national support base to fall within a range of 31% to 39%

If the ANC’s support drops to the lower end of that range, its support in the large cities will likely collapse into the 20s.

The ANC’s traditional alliance partners are jumping ship

Apart from declining support, the ANC’s Tripartite Alliance partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the unions, are deserting the party.

In the past, the SACP has chosen not to contest elections under its own banner, putting its weight behind the ANC.

However, in one of the most historic shake-ups in South African politics since 1994, this will change in the 2026 local government elections.

The shift to independently contest the 2026 Local Government Elections was finalised and announced in December 2024.

The SACP is not isolated in this move. Public sector unions within the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) support the party.

These include the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (NEHAWU), breaking their ‘Vote ANC’ stance to actively back the SACP at the polls.

Political analyst Professor Zamokuhle Mbandlwa expects more unions to support the SACP as the country prepares for the local government elections.

The reason is that unions view the South African Communist Party as the true champion of the working class and the poor.

In contrast, the ANC operates as a political party that represents various conflicting classes, including the bourgeoisie.

Mbandlwa expects the SACP’s independent run to draw voters directly from the ANC, leading to a significant decline in ANC support.

This is compounded by the rise of other opponents, like the MK Party, which has been stealing votes from the ANC.

He added that the ANC historically won elections as a broad coalition alongside the SACP, UDF, and student movements.

“Without these grassroots structures aligned to it, the ANC will face difficulty mobilising voters on the ground,” he said.

---

ANC support in elections

---