South Africa’s R393 billion economic hit
Between 2005 and 2024, South Africa has incurred an estimated R393 billion in economic losses due to natural disasters, highlighting the growing domestic cost of climate change.
While substantial, this figure is dwarfed by the R26.42 trillion in losses recorded across G20 nations during the same period, underscoring both the global scale of the crisis and the disproportionate exposure of emerging economies.
“The world is facing an unprecedented surge in climate-induced disasters, and the numbers tell a sobering story,” senior researcher at the G7 and G20 Research Groups, Jessica Rapson, writes.
“Between 2015 and 2023, more than 124 million people were affected by disasters annually across the globe.”
Even more alarming, the rate of disaster-affected populations has jumped 75%, rising from 1,158 per 100,000 people during 2005–2014 to 2,028 during 2014–2023, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
In South Africa, communities are experiencing an increasingly diverse and severe array of climate-related events – with 1,685 dead or missing since 2005 from natural disasters.
From droughts and floods to heatwaves, wildfires, landslides, smog, and water scarcity, the impacts are widespread.
“These disasters devastate agricultural systems, strain water resources, and ripple through economies and societies, affecting millions of lives and livelihoods,” Rapson notes.
South Africa placed disaster risk reduction (DRR) at the core of its G20 presidency, establishing a Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group to elevate infrastructure resilience on the global agenda.
“This initiative represents an acknowledgement that addressing disaster risk requires coordinated international action at the highest levels of government,” Rapson writes.
The urgency of disaster risk reduction, and the scale of losses affecting both South Africa and G20 nations, was extensively addressed in the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Declaration.
It emphasised resilience, early warning expansion and infrastructure protection as core global priorities.
| G20 Member | Total Deaths & Missing Persons | Total Affected People | Cumulative Economic Loss (USD) | Critical Infrastructure Damaged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 6,780 | 1,300,000 | $22,900,000,000 | 5,104 |
| Australia | 168 | 191,000 | $3,700,000,000 | 8,852 |
| Brazil | 4,211 | 54,100,000 | $65,000,000 | 2,505 |
| Canada | 644,000 | |||
| China | 7,308 | 52,900,000 | ||
| France | 14,580 | 742,000 | $56,300,000,000 | 22 |
| India | 121,000 | 734,700,000 | $2,900,000,000 | |
| Indonesia | 2,115 | 61,900,000 | $1,007,000,000,000 | 10,070 |
| Italy | 1,577 | 1,308 | ||
| Japan | 25,320 | 1,400,000 | $40,500,000,000 | 46,688 |
| Korea | 7,657 | 674,000 | $2,000,000,000 | 218 |
| Mexico | 9,834 | 6,900,000 | $63,600,000,000 | 260,000 |
| Russia | 8,883 | 1,400,000 | $7,700,000,000 | |
| South Africa | 1,685 | 4,100,000 | $22,700,000,000 | 33 |
| Türkiye | 2,537 | 1,100,000 | $13,000,000,000 | 511 |
| United Kingdom | 825 | |||
| United States | 6,555 | 4,800,000 | $290,000,000,000 | 62,123 |
The priorities
The Working Group identified six critical priorities relating to climate change:
- Addressing inequality and vulnerabilities;
- Achieving global coverage of early warning systems;
- Building disaster-resilient infrastructure;
- Securing adequate financing for DRR;
- Strengthening recovery and reconstruction efforts; and
- Implementing ecosystem- and nature-based solutions.
Yet major implementation gaps persist.
Rapson notes that “despite over 4 million residents being affected by natural disasters in recent years, South Africa has the worst multi-hazard warning score in the G20, at just 0.13 out of a possible score of 1.”
Globally, early warning systems still fail to reach a third of the world’s population. Even in technologically advanced regions such as North America, only 83% of those hit by disasters in the past five years received at least one warning.
Analysts argue that moving from statements to action requires sustained political will and dedicated financing.
Recommendations
Rapson recommends that G20 infrastructure ministers meet regularly to elevate disaster resilience to the same priority level as finance.
“Finance is another critical need. G20 members should declare specific funding pledges dedicated to developing and expanding multi-hazard early warning systems,” she writes, emphasising that systems must use public data and be freely accessible.
As climate impacts intensify, the world’s largest economies face a pivotal test: whether commitments can be transformed into results.
South Africa’s leadership in establishing the DRR Working Group offers a foundation, but success will depend on cross-border cooperation, financing, and tangible action.
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