Softer South African summer skies expected after years of chaos

South Africans can look forward to a largely “normal” summer rainfall season in
2025/26, according to the latest projections from international and local weather
agencies.

After years of weather extremes, the new outlook offers cautious optimism for
agriculture, water management and households across the country.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a key global climate system influencing South Africa’s rainfall — is currently in a neutral phase and expected to stay that way through the summer months.

Forecasts indicate a 50–66% chance that neutral conditions will continue into early 2026, while the likelihood of La Niña sits at 22%, with El Niño considered negligible.

Neutral ENSO years usually deliver near-average rainfall across the country,
avoiding the prolonged droughts linked to El Niño and the excess rains brought by La Niña.

“This forecast suggests that most summer rainfall regions should receive sufficient rain for crops and water supply, but the absence of strong climate signals means variability will still occur at local level,” said a report from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

For agriculture, the forecast offers a reprieve after several unpredictable seasons.
Improved soil moisture, replenished dams and strong water reserves from the
2024/25 season have created a solid foundation for agriculture.

An analysis by the International Research Institute (IRI) indicates a 75% probability of “normal” weather patterns, compared to a 20% chance of La Niña and just 5% for El Niño.

This stability is good news for grain producers, fruit growers and sugarcane farmers in the eastern and central provinces.

After several roller-coaster seasons, this year looks far more predictable. While farmers must still plan for short-term shocks, the overall outlook supports planting and production.

Cyclones still a concern

Despite the encouraging forecast, risks remain. The South-West Indian Ocean
cyclone season — from November 2025 to April 2026 — poses potential disruptions.

Tropical cyclones forming near Madagascar often bring heavy rainfall and flooding to KwaZulu-Natal and the Lowveld.

The regional outlook suggests that the eastern and central Regions (Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State) will receive near-normal rainfall, with wetter conditions possible in mid-summer, around December and February.

Limpopo and the North West will likely be slightly drier in early summer, between
October and December, though the neutral ENSO reduces the risk of severe
drought.

In the coastal areas, mainly the east coast, conditions remain tied to cyclone activity, with the chance of intense storms. These will likely happen in mid-summer.

Overall, the 2025/26 summer promises neither drought nor deluge — a welcome change for agricultural communities.

Still, experts caution that neutral summers can hide sharp local swings in rainfall,
and the cyclone season remains unpredictable since scientists can only detect
cyclone activity when the cyclone starts forming.

This suggests that the relevant authorities in municipalities, particularly in KwaZulu- Natal, the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga need to get their systems ready to build resilience for the damage likely to be caused by cyclones.