The worst-case scenario for the DA

Political analyst Frans Cronje said John Steenhuisen’s sudden departure as leader has the potential to hurt the party if it does not avoid specific events.

On 4 February 2026, Steenhuisen announced that he would not seek re-election as the Federal Leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA).

He said he wanted to focus exclusively on his role as the Minister of Agriculture within the Government of National Unity (GNU).

He said he needed to focus on managing the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, which significantly impacts the farming sector.

Steenhuisen framed his departure as having achieved his core goals, particularly leading the DA into national government for the first time following the 2024 elections.

While his official statement focused on his ministerial duties, reports indicate that other factors contributed to his stepping down as DA leader.

There have been public disagreements with other party figures, including a high-profile spat with former DA finance chief Dion George.

He was also accused of using a party credit card for personal use. An internal DA probe cleared him of wrongdoing, but the controversy added to the pressure.

There has also been speculation regarding a breakdown of his relationship with Federal Council Chairperson Helen Zille.

Some analysts suggest that shifting power dynamics within the party influenced the timing of his announcement.

The DA is set to elect Steenhuisen’s successor in April 2026, and Geordin Hill-Lewis is widely considered a frontrunner.

Other potential candidates mentioned include Communications Minister Solly Malatsi, Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube, and Western Cape Premier Alan Winde.

Despite stepping down as DA leader, Steenhuisen will remain the Minister of Agriculture in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s cabinet.

The worst-case scenario for the DA

Speaking in a Common Sense podcast, Frans Cronje outlined a potential negative chain of events for the DA that he suggests the party should avoid.

He said Steenhuisen’s departure as leader was sudden, and while the DA has its reasons, he describes it as risky to make such changes quickly.

It created a leadership vacuum, which may lead to a nasty or racially charged leadership contest ahead of the leadership election. The media might amplify it.

As a cabinet minister, Steenhuisen’s career is now effectively in the hands of the head of the ANC, Cyril Ramaphosa, rather than just the DA.

There can be a scenario where Ramaphosa might dismiss Steenhuisen over the handling of foot-and-mouth disease.

His replacement, which can come from a party like the Freedom Front Plus, may fix the crisis quickly, further damaging the DA’s reputation.

Geordin Hill-Lewis is likely to become the new DA leader, which will split his attention between running Cape Town and the national party.

This could lead to the DA losing ground in its stronghold to challengers like Gayton McKenzie’s PA.

Looking at the ANC, it may select billionaire Patrice Motsepe as its next leader. He could present himself as someone who can fix the failures of both the ANC and the DA.

In this specific scenario, the DA could fall below 20% of the vote while the ANC gets 45%.

This would allow the ANC to form a government with the Freedom Front Plus and the PA, leaving the DA sidelined.

Cronje reiterating that this is not a forecast of what will happen, but rather a chain of events for the party to consider and avoid.