The ANC is a failed party which is causing South Africa to become a failed state

Professor William Gumede said the ANC is a failed party which is presiding over South Africa, causing the country to become a failed state.

He shared his views about the African National Congress (ANC) and South Africa’s political landscape during an interview with ‘In Gesprek met Lourensa Eckard’.

Gumede is an Associate Professor at the School of Governance at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

He is widely regarded as one of South Africa’s foremost experts in governance, political economy, and democratic development.

In the discussion, he said that the ANC is almost like a party-state. “All of the party’s problems move into the state,” he said.

“The ANC members and leaders have been unable to differentiate between the party and the state.”

He cited the recent debacle, where the ANC failed to submit all its candidates for the local government elections.

“This is not a problem of the IEC. This is a problem of the ANC, including poor organisation, mismanagement, and incompetence.”

He explained that as the ANC’s support has declined in recent years, as seen in the 2024 general elections, its patronage systems are also declining.

“The ANC members are now fighting over fewer resources, which causes additional problems in the party,” he said.

Gumede said that although ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula’s head should roll, it would not happen because the party never takes responsibility for its failures.

He said that the ANC always blames someone else, in this case, the IEC, where it fails or performs poorly.

South Africa at risk of becoming a failed state 

Many others, including Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings, have warned that South Africa is at risk of becoming a failed state.

“In South Africa, the problem is economic growth. That is the be-all and end-all of the country’s current challenges,” Lings said.

“Over the last four years, South Africa’s economy has barely grown, and the 1.1% we expect this year’s GDP growth to be is not enough.”

Stats SA’s GDP data for the second quarter revealed the country’s economy shrank by 0.2%, breaking the six-quarter positive streak.

Lings explained that the six-quarter streak was largely driven by cyclical factors, such as falling inflation and declining interest rates.

“Last year’s growth was driven by consumer spending, which grew 3.7%. This was based on R70 billion being withdrawn under the two-pot retirement system,” Lings said.

“Coupled with that was falling inflation and interest rates. However, that momentum is now slowing down as inflation rises and interest rates tick up.”

For economic growth to be faster and more durable, South Africa has to, in simple terms, build more things.

This requires a significant and sustained increase in fixed investment, which is currently at 13.2% of GDP.

In contrast, developed economies spend 20% of GDP on fixed investment, while emerging markets spend 30%.

“As a developed economy, you have to spend 20% of GDP on fixed investment to maintain existing infrastructure. If you want to build out infrastructure, you have to hit 30% of GDP,” Lings said.

“South Africa’s fixed investment rate sits at 13.2%. South Africa risks becoming a failed state if it stays at that level while the population continues to grow.”