The ANC is in trouble

Economic and political expert Colin Coleman said the ANC’s support in the local government elections will likely fall from 46% in 2021 to 32% or 33% in 2026.

He shared his views on South Africa’s political and economic trajectory in an interview on SMWX with Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.

Coleman is a business leader who served as CEO of Goldman Sachs Sub-Saharan Africa and sits on the boards of numerous leading companies.

He is also a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School in New York.

He is recognised as an influential voice on national and African affairs and has played a key role in events affecting South Africa and the continent.

He told SMWX that he spent time with pollsters, and the data indicated that the ANC is set to lose significant support on the 2026 Local Government Elections.

“The ANC’s national support is likely to drop from 46% in 2021 to somewhere closer to 32% or 33% in 2026,” he said.

“At the same time, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is expected to increase its share to around 25%, while the ANC is likely to lose almost all major metropolitan areas.”

“This isn’t just my personal opinion. It is what the polling data strongly suggests. If this materialises, it will represent an electoral earthquake for the ANC.”

He predicted that after the 2026 Local Government Elections, the ANC would face a period of soul-searching as it prepares for its elective conference at the end of 2027.

Coleman said that these changes will make 2027 a pivotal year for South African politics.

“The DA will look to capitalise on its momentum by expanding beyond the Western Cape into Gauteng to lead major metropolitan councils,” he said.

“Come early 2027, an emboldened DA and a substantially weakened ANC will raise questions about the future and structure of the Government of National Unity.”

Apart from the loss of political support, the ANC faces another problem, the Phala Phala scandal, which has weakened its President, Cyril Ramaphosa.

“The Phala Phala issue is not a single domino that will cause the entire political system to collapse. However, it weakens the President’s authority and credibility,” he said.

“He may have gained a short-term procedural delay through the courts, but it creates an overall leadership vacuum over an extended period.”

“The immediate issue facing us is the upcoming local government election and the shift it could cause in the political balance of the country and the GNU.”