Adapt or perish: South Africa’s new climate plan

South Africa’s recently published draft Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for 2030–2035 suggests the government is now prioritising climate adaptation over mitigation to tackle the climate crisis.

The authors of the NDC, the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), advance the following argument in suggesting the primacy of climate change adaptation:

“Adaptation remains insufficiently prioritised at both national and sub-national levels, leading to persistent vulnerabilities, especially within rural and climate-exposed municipalities.”

“Despite adaptation’s prominence in national climate policy, adaptation initiatives received less than 20% of tracked climate finance between 2020 and 2022.”

It noted that key sectors such as water resource management, climate-smart agriculture, and disaster risk reduction continue to face significant funding shortfalls despite their high exposure to climate risk.

The document appears to acknowledge that the country has been consumed by mitigation measures, which have become unpopular, particularly following the disastrous implementation of the just energy transition after the closure of Komati Power Station in 2022.

It’s not by accident that the PCC is now realising that adaptation is more urgent than mitigation in South Africa and indeed, the African continent and the Global South.

Many climate change scholars on the continent, including myself, have made this point several times, including in this article.

The reason is simple: the Global South is facing disproportional impacts of climate change, compared to the Global North.

Africa at the frontline of the climate crisis

Africa stands at the frontline of the global climate crisis, confronting a paradoxical and deeply unjust reality.

Despite contributing less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the continent bears a disproportionate share of the impacts of climate change.

Intensifying droughts, erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, flooding, and sea-level rise increasingly threaten African lives, livelihoods and ecosystems, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

In this context, the urgency of climate action is beyond question.

However, the strategic prioritisation between climate change adaptation – efforts to cope with current and anticipated effects – and mitigation  – efforts to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions, has generated considerable policy debate across the continent and indeed, the whole world.

The debate stems from the fact that Western countries have historically prioritised climate change mitigation over adaptation, focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy, carbon pricing and technological innovation.

Mitigation aligns with long-term global climate goals, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement.

However, this focus often overlooks the immediate needs of vulnerable regions, particularly in the Global South, where adaptation is a pressing survival necessity.

Critics have argued that Western-led climate discourse tends to treat adaptation as secondary, both politically and financially.

For instance, less than 25% of international climate finance is directed toward adaptation, with the vast majority favouring mitigation projects, many of which are located in developed or emerging economies.

South Africa’s shortfall

With regards to South Africa, the draft NDC states that “South Africa faces a significant shortfall in the finance required to meet its adaptation needs, with only $7.64 million (about R135 million) in adaptation-specific funding received in 2021-2022.”

This means climate mitigation received $808 million of the $816.9 million in the same period.

This imbalance reflects a structural inequity: wealthy nations seek to control future climate risks through mitigation, while poorer countries, facing immediate existential threats, require support to adapt now.

This disconnect reinforces climate injustice and underscores the need for a more balanced approach that elevates adaptation as a global priority alongside mitigation.

Thus, climate adaptation must take primacy over mitigation in South Africa, given the country’s acute vulnerability, limited adaptive capacity, and underdeveloped infrastructure.

While mitigation is essential to achieve long-term global climate stability, adaptation is the most immediate and pragmatic response for African countries facing existential threats today.

The balance between the two must be contextual, recognising that the country’s development, security and resilience depend more urgently on adapting to climate shocks than on reducing emissions.

South Africa’s infrastructure deficit is both a driver and amplifier of climate vulnerability. The country faces a significant infrastructure deficit across multiple sectors, including transport, energy, water, and digital infrastructure.

According to Investec, the country needs to spend billions of rand to bring its infrastructure to acceptable standards.

Infrastructure systems – roads, bridges, water networks, energy grids, and housing – are frequently overwhelmed or destroyed by floods, storms, or droughts, exposing millions to harm.

Adaptation averts disaster

Adaptation not only helps avert climate disaster, it also offers direct benefits to human welfare, economic stability, and sustainable development.

Enhancing the resilience of infrastructure, agriculture, water resources and urban planning enables communities to protect assets and secure livelihoods.

According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, studies have shown that every dollar invested in adaptation can yield up to four dollars in benefits, especially in vulnerable regions.

By contrast, mitigation investments in Africa have had limited immediate impact and returns.

In this regard, I applaud the PCC’s newly realised adaptation prioritisation. My only gripe is that typical of the government’s poor communication on climate change issues, the document doesn’t appear to have been widely publicised.

I came to know about it through this article on June 10, despite being on the mailing list of the PCC.

I reiterate my suggestion that the government needs to improve its climate change communication, otherwise it’s not helping involve society in the fight against the crisis.

• Dr Enock Sithole is the executive director of the Institute of Climate Change Communication.