Bad news about Helen Zille’s bid to become Johannesburg mayor

Helen Zille’s mayoral campaign might be on shaky ground, with recent polling predicting a weak turnout for the DA’s Johannesburg candidate.

Helen Zille has been a noteworthy figure in South African politics for decades, working with the Democratic Alliance (DA) since the 1990s.

She began her political career as a party advisor before serving in the Western Cape provincial legislature and securing a seat in the National Assembly in 2004.

After this, she became the executive mayor of Cape Town, serving for three years before transitioning to the Western Cape Premier.

During this time, she also served as the leader of the DA, which had become the main opposition party to the African National Congress (ANC).

She stepped down from her leadership role in the DA in 2015, handing the mantle to Mmusi Maimane. She later served as the party’s Federal Council Chairperson.

Recently, Zille has experienced a resurgence in popularity after announcing her intention to run for mayor of Johannesburg.

Following this announcement, Zille and her team organised a large social media campaign, posting comical videos highlighting the issues in the Johannesburg area.

These videos included Zille rafting through streets with burst water pipes and ziplining across unrepaired sinkholes, garnering attention from the city’s residents.

These videos were widely shared across apps like Facebook and TikTok, grabbing the attention of young voters.

While many have viewed her social media-driven campaign as successful, recent polling suggests otherwise.

The Social Research Foundation released the results of a poll it completed in the Johannesburg area.

The poll showed that 60% of Gauteng voters would support the DA candidate for mayor, rising to 65% among Johannesburg voters.

This is where the good news ended for Zille. The poll also showed only 39% of Johannesburg voters intended to vote for the DA, which is the most important measurement.

The race for mayor is at a stalemate

Political economist Frans Cronje spoke on the Common Sense podcast about Zille’s chances of becoming Johannesburg’s mayor.

He said for the DA to win in Johannesburg, two things would need to happen: residents must lose faith in the city’s current leadership, and they must believe the DA can fix the problem.

He said the first issue had largely happened, with the city currently facing widespread service delivery challenges and inadequate support for residents.

“In Johannesburg, that has materially happened, with collapsing confidence in the ANC,” he said.

Issues such as water supply, where residents have sometimes gone without water for 12 days due to ageing infrastructure, have left many with a poor opinion of the city’s administration.

This is compounded by financial mismanagement in the local government, which has led to large debts owed to service providers such as Rand Water and Eskom.

Cronje said the next step would be for Johannesburg residents to believe that a new party has their best interests in mind.

He believes the DA has failed to do so, making it difficult for the party to win a majority in Johannesburg against the ANC.

He said that the two parties are currently in a deadlock, with South Africans simultaneously losing faith in the ANC and having no faith in the DA.

He called this a “political no-man’s land” where no party in Johannesburg can secure a clear majority.

“Either the ANC has to restore confidence that it can advance people’s interests. Or the DA has to achieve that confidence and establish that they can do that,” he said.

This leaves Helen Zille’s campaign in an awkward position, with her efforts to attract young voters not seeming to break the deadlock in the Johannesburg mayoral race.

Currently, the ANC has not announced a mayoral candidate for the area, making it difficult to predict the election’s outcome.