South Africans are flocking out of these provinces

South Africans are continuing to flock out of the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and Free State.

Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA’s) 2025 mid-year population estimates show that these provinces have more migrants leaving than coming in.

According to StatsSA’s estimated provincial migration streams, 2021–2026, the Eastern Cape stands out as a key bleeder of residents.

Nearly half a million residents are expected to leave the province during those five years, while only about 198,700 move in, resulting in a staggering net migration loss of approximately −299,500.

Limpopo also faces significant population decline through migration. The province is expected to lose close to 433,700 residents while attracting only 276,100 newcomers.

This leaves a net migration of -157,692.

The Free State follows a similar, though less dramatic, pattern. Outflows of just over 160,500 people outweigh inflows of around 147,600, producing a moderate net loss of about −13,000.

Province	Out-migrants	In-migrants	Net migration
Gauteng (GP)	629,301	1,416,204	+786,903
Western Cape (WC)	181,393	500,347	+318,953
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)	317,706	349,182	+31,476
Mpumalanga (MP)	219,958	302,450	+82,492
North West (NW)	196,988	305,410	+108,422
Northern Cape (NC)	84,295	91,526	+7,232
Free State (FS)	160,536	147,558	-12,978
Limpopo (LP)	433,748	276,056	-157,692
Eastern Cape (EC)	498,149	198,686	-299,462

Expert analysis

Experts say that South Africa’s latest migration data reveal a deepening divide between its rural and urban provinces.

A growing number of people are leaving the Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and the Free State, drawn to more economically active regions such as Gauteng and the Western Cape.

According to research by Professor Mark Collinson and Dr Carren Ginsburg from the MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), migration within South Africa is largely driven by necessity rather than choice.

Writing in a February 2025 article for Wits University News, Christina Potgieter reported that, as Collinson explains, “mobility is a vital livelihood strategy due to the limited opportunities for employment locally.”

The piece, Moving out, moving in – The South African Semigration Story, highlights that this pattern is especially pronounced among young people, who move away from their home provinces in search of work and education opportunities in more economically vibrant regions.

Declining rural economies are accelerating this trend. Some small towns in the Eastern Cape, he observed, are “decaying because they can’t sustain an economy,” prompting residents to relocate.

Education plays a complementary role. The Wits report notes that many people initially move to access training or tertiary education, and then remain in urban centres where jobs and infrastructure are more readily available.

Service delivery and quality of life issues are another major factor.

The Eastern Cape Socio-Economic Consultative Council (ECSECC) has identified a lack of job opportunities, a poor quality of life, and inadequate service delivery as key reasons for the province’s persistent out-migration.

The Wits article defines this internal movement as “semigration”, emphasising that it does not always follow a simple rural-to-city path.

Instead, people often move from rural areas to small towns before eventually settling in metropolitan regions.

Research by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) has found that the Eastern Cape’s long history of out-migration has deprived it of much of its skilled population.

The province, the HSRC noted, “is unlikely to benefit fully from the skills and experiences of its educated population because many migrate out.”

In the Free State, Statistics South Africa data shows a steady population decline as “limited economic diversification and relatively fewer large economic centres” make it difficult to retain residents compared to faster-growing provinces such as Gauteng and the Western Cape.

Experts warn that these migration patterns could deepen regional inequality.

When working-age people, especially those with higher education or training, leave their home provinces, they take with them vital skills and earning potential.

This loss of human capital weakens local economies and reduces demand for goods and services, further eroding municipal tax bases.

Over time, the resulting fiscal and demographic pressures make it harder for provincial and local governments to maintain infrastructure and provide essential services.