Most major cities in South Africa set for hung councils after 2026 elections

In the upcoming local elections, almost all of South Africa’s most significant economic hubs will likely have hung councils. 

A municipality is hung when not one party secures an outright majority. Leading up to the  2026 elections, almost no major city appears secure. 

This is according to election analyst Dawie Scholtz, who spoke to Newsday about the key battlegrounds to watch next year. 

According to Scholtz, most of the country will experience a  “highly contested, highly competitive” election season. 

“Most municipalities outside of Limpopo, the Eastern half of the Eastern Cape, and sections of the North West are on track to be hung,” said Scholtz. 

Scholtz used to work with the Democratic Alliance (DA). He is now a management consultant, but continues to analyse the political landscape with a specific focus on elections. 

In the 2021 local elections, the African National Congress (ANC) comfortably won the majority across all five of Limpopo’s district municipalities with no clear opposition. 

This was the same for the Eastern Cape, outside of the Sarah Baartman District Municipality, where the DA won the majority of votes in Kouga and coalition governments were formed in Dr Beyers Naudé and Kou-Kamma municipalities. 

The last of Scholtz’s predictions for municipalities safe from competition are in the North West, where, again, the ANC comfortably holds the majority of municipalities, with pockets of EFF support in municipalities like Maquassi Hills. 

Of the rest of the country, which Scholtz sees as at risk of hung governance, “the metros are, of course, always of particular interest due to their economic significance,” Scholtz said. 

“Based on the voting patterns from 2024, it’s very clear that the three Gauteng metros will all be hung, with the DA as the largest party,” he said. 

The municipalities were hung in the last local elections, when no party secured a majority vote in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, or Tshwane. 

Mayoral go-around and no easy outlook

While all three metros were already coalition governments, 2021 saw further fragmentation of government with the introduction of smaller parties. 

In Johannesburg, a DA-led coalition that was formed after the 2021 elections was replaced by a 10-party ANC coalition in 2022.

The city’s governance has not been stable since the last elections, with nine mayoral changes since 2021.

Similarly, in Ekurhuleni, a DA-led coalition was formed after the 2021 elections with the EFF as kingmaker, aiming to end ANC dominance.

This was replaced by an ANC-led coalition with several smaller parties when the EFF shifted its support to the ANC in 2023. The current coalition excludes both the DA and ActionSA, but the ANC mayor was voted in with the support of the latter.

Similarly, Tshwane’s DA-led multi-party coalition from the 2021 elections has been replaced by the current coalition, made up of ANC, EFF, ActionSA, and the Patriotic Alliance.

In addition to the three major metros of South Africa’s economic hub, Scholtz said that other major metropolitan municipalities are also unlikely to come out of the 2026 elections with a one-party government.

“eThewkini is also highly likely to be hung, with MK as the largest party, based on 2024 voting patterns,” he said. 

The municipality, the third largest after Johannesburg and Cape Town, is currently governed by an ANC-EFF coalition.

Scholtz further expects that Nelson Mandela Bay will be highly contested, as is usually the case. 

The ANC regained control of Nelson Mandela Bay in 2021, forming a coalition with several smaller parties. The municipality was previously under the control of a DA-led coalition. 

The addition of growing support for the Patriotic Alliance in the region is likely to further complicate results, according to the analyst.

Scholtz added that there is even likely to be a very close race in Mangaung municipality, with a real possibility of the ANC falling under 50%.

The ANC has retained a majority vote in the Free State Metro for the last two local elections. 

Scholtz is confident that the DA will retain the majority vote in Cape Town, but a greater trend towards hung, coalition governments in South Africa’s biggest metros shows signs of continuing, according to Scholtz. 

He said, while it is difficult to say without detailed polling, “If the past is anything to go by, more ANC voters will abandon the party for a variety of smaller parties, in addition to some bigger parties like MK, DA, and EFF.”