The ANC is facing complete annihilation

Political scientist Dr Frans Cronje says the African National Congress (ANC) is “facing complete annihilation” in upcoming elections, given waning support at the national, provincial, and municipal levels.

ANC support dropped to 40% in the 2024 National elections after holding an outright majority since 1994. It faced a similar reality in the 2021 Local Government Elections (LGEs) when it received 45% of the national vote.

Recent Democratic Alliance (DA) polling found that support for the ANC at the national level has dropped even further since the electorate took to voting stations last year, putting national support at 29%.

The DA’s polls are conducted telephonically, contacting a representative sample of 1,820 people daily. However, the party admits that the margin for error in these outcomes may be great.

The ANC has rejected these polls, saying that many of them “are funded by neo-liberal think tanks and DA-aligned interests to project a manufactured narrative of ANC decline.”

Yet, a recent Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection study found that ANC support is eroding, predicting it will only receive an outright majority in two of the nine provinces in 2029.

Cronje argued that the ANC “will most likely lose in Gauteng during the next LGEs, they’re going to get wiped out in KwaZulu-Natal, and they have already lost the Western Cape.”

According to Victory Research CEO Gareth van Onselen, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng “will be the biggest battlegrounds in the upcoming LGE,” given the MK’s performance in 2024.

In last year’s elections, the ANC’s support dropped from 55.47% in 2019 to a mere 17.62% in KZN. On the other hand, the MK Party came close to an outright majority, winning 45.93% of the vote in the province.

Gauteng was also a major upset for Cyril Ramaphosa’s party in 2024, where support dropped from 53.2% to 36.5%.

As for the Western Cape, this has been a DA stronghold for several years, with it achieving an outright majority in 2024. ANC support in the province came out to just under 20%.

“What’s left beyond that?” Cronje asked. “It’s mostly non-viable provinces, that’s all they’ll have left.”

Declining ANC support

Dr. Ralph Mathekga wrote in a Geopolitical Intelligence Services report that “misgovernance, corruption and waning trust” continue to hurt the ANC’s electoral prospects.

“Post-independence politics in South Africa have been completely dominated by the ANC. But in recent years, the party has struggled to maintain its position amid allegations of corruption, cronyism and short-sighted populism.”

“The ANC is fully aware that it would have to undergo a massive renewal to win back the voters it has lost, and party leaders have indicated the need for introspection but not yet put forward solutions.”

The ANC saw significant success at the national level for the first three terms that it was in power, steadily increasing its share of seats in the country’s National Assembly.

In the 1994 general elections, the ANC won 62.6% of the vote. Five years later, this increased to 66.3%.

By 2004, reached the height of its reign when it secured more than two-thirds of the vote, 69.7%, under Thabo Mbeki. However, it would only be downhill from there.

The initial decline was slow, dropping to 65.9% under newly elected ANC President Jacob Zuma in 2009 and then to 62.1% in 2014.

The 2019 elections saw the party come the closest it had been to losing its outright majority, when it achieved 57.5% of the vote in the 2019 elections under Cyril Ramaphosa.

A similar trend has been noticed in the outcomes of the LGEs, with the party increasing its national vote share from 59.4% in 2000 to 64.82% in 2006.

However, this has only gone downhill since, decreasing to 61.95% in 2011, 53.91% in 2016, and 45.49% in 2021.

Service delivery or death

At a roll call event in mid-September, Cyril Ramaphosa warned over 4,600 of the party’s municipal councillors that if it does not tend to service delivery issues, it will lose the remainder of its support.

“If we don’t tend to the needs of the people, then we die, as in the case of Ditsobotla,” the ANC president said.

The Ditsobotla Local Municipality was recently placed under National Administration following a collapse of basic service delivery, political instability, corruption, and financial mismanagement in the district.

The municipality’s failures significantly impacted local business and investment in the area, with Ramaphosa pointing to the closure of  Clover’s flagship cheese factory in Lichtenburg.

The factory was closed in 2021, citing poor service delivery and infrastructure problems.

“As of today, your marching orders are that when a water leak and sewage are running in the street, you must be the first to know and do something within 48 hours,” Ramaphosa said.

He warned that any councillor who opposes the party’s attempts to “reform service delivery” in its municipalities will be shown the door.