Expert predicts Ramaphosa will be gone by 2027

The collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is imminent, and will be accelerated when Cyril Ramaphosa is removed as ANC President in 2027, according to political analyst Prince Mashele. 

“The GNU will not finish five years. Mark my words,” Mashele told Mike Sham on the State of the Nation. 

Mashele said the downfall of the GNU will begin when Ramaphosa is removed as President of the ANC at the party’s elective conference at the end of 2027.

“There will be a new leader. Either Paul Mashatile or Fikile Mbalula,” he said. “That new leader will rise on an anti-Ramaphosa ticket.”

Mashele explained that historically, three conditions point to the removal of Ramaphosa as president and the subsequent collapse of the GNU. Firstly, ANC presidents are historically weakest in their second term. 

Both Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were removed as ANC president during their second terms in office.

These removals took place at the 2007 Polokwane elective conference and at the 2017 Nasrec elective conference, respectively. 

Secondly, the candidate who replaces an ANC president usually rises to power as an anti-incumbency figure, Mashele said. 

Kgalema Motlathe and later, Jacob Zuma, were the opposition figures to Thabo Mbeki, and Ramaphosa was the opposition figure to Jacob Zuma. 

Lastly, Mashele said an ANC president who has been removed in an elective conference is never allowed to finish his term as president of the state.

“Even Thabo Mbeki, who was very powerful, was removed. Even Jacob Zuma, who controlled the criminal network of the ANC, was removed.

“Cyril Ramaphosa is the weakest president of the ANC since 1994. He won’t even be removed; the guy will run,” said Mashele. 

This, he said, will be the end of the GNU. The political risk of supporting someone like Paul Mashatile will be too much for the Democratic Alliance, and they will have to pull out of the coalition. 

The post-Ramaphosa future

The DA has been critical of Deputy President Paul Mashatile, most recently accusing him of involvement in the awarding of the fourth Lotto license to Sizekhaya Holdings, which has been linked to Mashatile’s family. 

The party also flagged that Mashatile failed to disclose that his wife was recently gifted a diamond by alleged fraudster Louis Liebenberg in July 2025, resulting in a R10,000 fine for the deputy president.

The party made additional corruption-related allegations against Mashatile, relating to the purchase of a R28.9 million Cape Town property.

Mashele similarly criticised the luxury of Mashatile’s mansions in Constantia and Waterfall, valued at a collective R70 million.

Mashele said that looking at them, one would think they are the homes of a multi-billion-rand businessman, and not a civil servant.

Despite these scandals, the notion that Ramaphosa will be removed and replaced by Mashatile in 2027 was seconded by the Brenthurst Foundation last month.

The organisation specialising in political analysis was set up by the Oppenheimer family, one of the biggest donors to South African political parties. 

“Ramaphosa will still have two years to serve out his second term, but history is not on his side,” foundation directors Ray Hartley and Greg Mills wrote. 

“What is frightening is how uncertain the post-Ramaphosa future looks. The party’s succession trajectory has never been less certain.”

While all ANC presidents since Mandela were previously deputy presidents, the foundation said Mashatile has been haunted by scandals and lacks the stature of his predecessors. 

The foundation added, however, that Mashatile is the only candidate likely to attempt keeping the GNU together.

If other candidates, such as Mbalula or Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi, were to take over, they are likely to break the GNU up themselves, the foundation said.

Data collected by the Social Research Foundation in April indicates that, if Ramaphosa were removed as president, support for the ANC would dwindle to just above 20%, making it the second largest party, behind the DA. 

“We must prepare ourselves for political chaos in December 2027,” Mashele concluded.