Fidel Castro’s alleged warnings on the downfall of the ANC

Political and economic analyst Dr. Frans Cronje said that Fidel Castro warned Nelson Mandela that Cyril Ramaphosa could spell the end of the ANC.

Speaking in an interview with Mike Sham on the State of the Nation, Cronje said that there is a fundamental lack of strategic acumen in what he calls “the ANC’s final years.”

This, he said, is caused by the party’s leader, President Ramaphosa, and was predicted by the late Cuban President, Fidel Castro. 

“Now is what Castro warned us about. Because Castro warned Mandela: if you let Ramaphosa take over the ANC, he will destroy your party because he’s not up to it,” said Cronje. 

This warning allegedly played a key role in Thabo Mbeki succeeding Mandela as president over top-choice Ramaphosa.

In addition to warnings on the party’s leadership, Castro also allegedly warned the ANC against some political reforms.

Cronje told Newsday that Castro, as well as the Soviet Union, had a surprisingly moderating influence on the ANC in the run-up to the Cold War and in the period immediately thereafter.

“Both cautioned the ANC not to move aggressively to nationalise industry and expropriate property,” Cronje said.

Instead, Castro advised the ANC to tax industry and use South Africa’s unique skills base to build a resilient economy and evade the risk of borrowing dollars – “which would have meant the end of the ANC revolution,” Cronje said.

Castro had once asked the ANC leadership to visit Havana to discuss the Freedom Charter, a precursor to the constitution, according to reports from the Daily Maverick.

Castro reportedly said to the leaders, “in the Freedom Charter, you are planning to nationalise the mines. But are you in a position to actually run the mines?”

He then pointed out Cuba’s own lack of preparedness for certain consequences of the revolution.

Former President Thabo Mbeki was part of this delegation. Mbeki said in an interview with SABC that Castro warned the party that if they nationalised the banks and mines, property owners and allies across the world would launch a huge offensive against the ANC.

“Will you have the capacity to do that, and still defend the revolution?” Castro warned. He advised instead that the ANC win the political victory and entrench itself before it takes on battles of this kind.

Mbeki added that Castro was particularly concerned about “the need for the democratic revolution in South Africa to succeed… and the importance that we didn’t do anything which might lead to the defeat of that democratic revolution.”

During another visit to Cuba in 1991, Mandela said to Castro that the ANC might abandon peace talks with then-president of South Africa F.W. De Klerk and resort to “other options”.

Castro advised against this, asking Mandela: “How do you see the process unfolding if you do that?”

Cronje said to Newsday that Castro’s economic advice worked well during the ANC’s initial years in office. “Debt to GDP was halved from 1994 to 2007 and interest spending fell from 20c/R to 7c/R.”

Economic growth and job creation improved as well, according to Cronje, alongside ANC support. “That all changed, of course, from 2008 and at the 2009 election,” he said.

Cronje said that there are members of the ANC with strategic acumen and the will to make changes, but the party has engineered an immunity to reform in its executive committee. 

“Once you’ve added everyone together that goes to an executive committee meeting, you’re almost at a hundred people. And these people are motivated by several things, ranging from the country and the party to not going to prison,” said Cronje. 

Without a forceful leader, while some ANC members desire reform, as a collective, the part cannot move towards it. “If the ANC were a corporation, it would be bankrupt. It would have long ceased to be,” Cronje said. 

Fidel Castro – an ANC hero

The ANC and Cuba have a long-standing relationship that was formalised by Nelson Mandela and Fidel Castro in 1994. 

The relationship dates back informally to the 1980s, when the Cuban People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola fought alongside liberation groups against the South African Apartheid Government’s Defence Force. 

Castro’s support for the ANC extended beyond military support to the education of black South Africans and providing South Africans with Cuban passports to facilitate international travel under apartheid.

Nelson Mandela said that Castro’s involvement in African liberation “marked a turning point for the liberation of our continent, and of my people, from the scourge of apartheid.”

Castro was criticised by organisations such as Amnestry International at the time, for his one-party system, for jailing opponents and for stifling dissent, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The ANC refused to endorse such criticism. Mandela said the ANC would not take advice from those who supported the Apartheid regime about who can and cannot be its allies.

After taking office and formalising relations, Castro continued to be revered by the ANC, who bestowed on him the Order of the Companions of OR Tambo and the Heritage Council’s Ubuntu Award. 

Post-1994, Cuba was one of the first countries to offer material and human resources support to South Africa. 

Since then, the bilateral relationship between South Africa and Cuba has led to over 30 years of cooperation projects and political solidarity. 

ANC leaders showed a reverence for Castro that was clear after his death in 2016. 

“We honour him because he was fearless. He was courageous. He was principled. When we think about his life, we begin to think about another icon that we had in our own lives and that’s Nelson Mandela,” Ramaphosa said at a memorial service for the Cuban leader.