Soon the Union Buildings will only govern their front gardens

Under the Government of National Unity (GNU), political analyst Dr Frans Cronje says he expects South Africa could “fall apart”, with wealthy South Africans retreating into “fortified islands of great comfort and prosperity.”

Cronje made the comments in an interview with Dr Mbuyiseni Ndlozi on the African Renaissance Podcast.

“Under the GNU, I suggest that the place might fall apart,” he said. “As that strong, central state begins to fail, it withdraws the things that you might think the state should do.”

He argued that the GNU itself is a consequence of the ANC’s 15-year decline and systemic failures, which cost it a majority in the 2024 elections — and he doesn’t believe the coalition will last.

As the state recedes from communities, in policing, emergency services and other functions, what remains is not a vacuum, he said.

Instead, individuals and groups begin to appropriate state functions for themselves, which he believes is already happening “at a massive scale” in South Africa.

Without a strong, centrist, nationalist government in Pretoria, Cronje argues, power will inevitably fragment into local communities.

“The elites will withdraw to where they live in fortified islands of great comfort and prosperity, as is already apparent.”

He added that traditional leaders in rural areas are likely to assume powers previously held by the state. “The Union Buildings will govern over its gardens and the fence outside,” he said.

“But if you wish to get something done, you’ll talk to the local leader of the taxi industry, or a traditional leader, or you’ll stand at the gate of a golf estate saying you have a warrant of arrest.”

Millions of South Africans left behind

South Africa is already fragmenting into these communities, Cronje explains, not formally, but those fortunate enough to live within their boundaries are rewarded with a very different experience. 

While some may believe being free from centrist power is a good thing, Cronje said that this would be a blow to the ordinary South African. 

“If you are the head of a farmers’ union, you’ll be a very powerful person; if you are the head of a taxi association, you’ll be a very powerful person; if you chair the body corporate of a golf estate, you’ll be a very powerful person,” he explained. 

But for the ordinary person, their existence will depend on the authority of these actors. “It’s actually not a wonderful, utopian outcome for a society.”

Additionally, if the central power of the state collapses, the elite middle and upper classes will survive in these enclaves, but millions will not escape the consequences as easily. 

“If you’re rich and you don’t care about the world around you, then you can relax because you can live in an enclave,” he said. 

“You can have a fantastic life that will last long into the future, and at some point, a cabinet minister will become your neighbour.”

He said this “enclave phenomenon” is extremely dangerous, as millions of South Africans will be left behind in terrible suffering.