DA strongholds under threat

While the Democratic Alliance (DA) is on course to be a key contender in South Africa’s major metros in 2026, its current strongholds are under threat. 

This is according to election analyst Dawie Scholtz, who told Newsday that, come the 2026 local elections, it is likely that the DA will be the largest party in Gauteng. 

Scholtz said that Ekurhuleni will be the tightest, but for Tshwane and Johannesburg, the DA is quite likely to take the largest share of votes.

“Based on the voting patterns from 2024, it’s very clear that the three Gauteng metros will be hung, with the DA largest in all three, possibly,” he said. 

It is not likely, however, that the DA will gain an outright majority in any of these metros.

Scholtz sees the next local elections as leading to further fractured governments and coalitions, but with the DA holding the greatest sway.

While this growth is significant, DA strongholds in the Western and Eastern Cape will be less certain in these elections. 

The election analyst predicts that the DA will “obviously” be the largest party in Cape Town, but with the Patriotic Alliance (PA) party growing, there is a small chance that it could push the DA under 50%.

The PA has been snapping up by-election after by-election in the Western Cape away from the DA, such as Ward 27 of the Drakenstein Municipality, encompassing Wellington and Paarl. 

Scholtz said that this support is not a threat to the key metropolitan municipality of Cape Town, where the DA achieved a vote share of 58.33% in 2021. 

“In the past, the PA’s growth has been most pronounced in lower-income, rural, coloured communities, and not so much in middle-class, urban, coloured communities like the ones that make up the bulk of the Cape Town electorate,” he said. 

“So it’s possible that the PA’s growth could push the DA below 50% in Cape Town, but unlikely, based on past patterns. They would have to achieve something at a scale we have not yet seen any evidence of in elections, by-elections, or public polling.”

“We don’t want coalitions anymore”

In Nelson Mandela Bay, on the other hand, the situation is trickier. The DA and the ANC currently hold 40% of the seats in NMB each. The municipality is run by an ANC-led coalition with smaller parties. 

Scholtz explained that, while the DA has been the largest party in previous elections, these elections will be different.

This is due to an apparent surge of popularity for the PA in this part of the country. Scholtz said that the party is likely to take a significant chunk of the votes away from the DA.

In May 2025, PA leader Gayton McKenzie held the first rally of the PA’s 2026 election campaign in Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. 

At the event, he declared the Eastern Cape ground zero for the PA and said the party will be taking over every municipality from the ANC, including NMB. 

“We don’t want coalitions anymore. Nelson Mandela Bay will be a PA municipality,” he said. 

The DA’s mayoral candidate for NMB, Retief Odendaal, in his 6 October speech, echoed this sentiment regarding coalitions. 

Odendaal said that “the ANC and their small party friends” are destroying the municipality, calling it a “coalition of corruption.”

Scholtz sees a one-party outcome as unlikely, however, and said that NMB will “definitely be hung” with no party securing an outright majority.