Eighth term’s a charm

Announcing his bid for an eighth term in July, Paul Biya, Cameroon’s 92-year-old president, said he was heeding “numerous and insistent” calls to stay in office, but this year’s election cycle has also featured striking appeals for him to step aside.

First came Catholic Archbishop Samuel Kleda, who went on French radio last Christmas to say it was “not realistic” for Biya to keep doing the job.

Then came the defections of not one but two cabinet members from Cameroon’s vote-rich northern regions, both of whom openly challenged Biya’s fitness to lead.

Finally, the president’s own daughter, 27-year-old Brenda Biya, said on TikTok last month that her father “has made too many people suffer” and urged Cameroonians to vote him out.

She later recanted, but the post continues to circulate widely among Biya’s detractors.

Despite these criticisms, as well as a host of security and economic challenges, the world’s oldest head of state stands a strong chance of victory when the cocoa- and oil-producing Central African country goes to the polls on October 12.

Analysts say he is buttressed by factors that have already helped keep him in power for more than four decades: an entrenched patronage system, flawed electoral institutions, a loyal army and a divided opposition.

“The president has managed to enforce loyalty to him and the system… Very few people in the ruling system are willing to put their heads above the parapet” to challenge him, said Arrey Ntui, senior analyst for International Crisis Group, the conflict-prevention organisation.

“When it comes to the president, there is no more independent thinking. It is just a one-line story: The president is there, he’s able to run again, that’s it.”

Health fears

Biya has held a tight grip on power since taking over as president in 1982 from his one-time mentor Ahmadou Ahidjo, whom he sidelined and forced into exile.

He survived a coup attempt in 1984 and a stiff challenge during Cameroon’s first multi-party elections in 1992, when he won 40% of the vote, just 3 percentage points more than the runner-up.

In 2008, Biya signed a constitutional amendment removing a two-term limit for the presidency.

He went on to win by comfortable margins in elections in 2011 and 2018, dismissing his opponents’ complaints of ballot stuffing and intimidation.

Biya’s biggest obstacle this time around could be his own health, which has long been a source of speculation, including last year when he disappeared from public view for 42 days.

The government has dismissed the health concerns as “pure fantasy”, though last year it also banned public discussion of the topic.

And Cameroonians continue to grapple daily with poor access to basic amenities from roads and water to electricity and waste management.

Vote fairness concerns

These vulnerabilities, however, could be offset by his government’s ability to control how the election plays out.

In July, a court deemed ineligible the candidacy of Maurice Kamto, Biya’s main rival who finished second in 2018, saying the party he registered to represent was already supporting another candidate.

Human Rights Watch said the move “raises concerns about the credibility of the electoral process.”

Kamto denounced the 2018 election result as fraudulent and was arrested in January 2019 after leading protests which security forces dispersed with live bullets.

He faced insurrection charges before a military court which his lawyers said could have carried the death penalty, though he was released in October 2019.

Arrest or the threat of arrest has long helped keep the opposition weak. Cameroonian officials say they are simply enforcing the country’s laws.

Fear of legal trouble for speaking out goes well beyond the political class, said Raoul Sumo Tayo, senior researcher with the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies think tank.

“When you take a taxi in Cameroon, you don’t know who exactly is the driver. People are afraid to speak,” he said, describing the perceived ubiquity of intelligence agents.

“Everybody in Cameroon wants to see their children grow, and so many stay quiet, and it empowers the regime.”

• Reporting by Robbie Corey-Boulet in Dakar and Amindeh Blaise Atabong in Yaounde.