People continue to flock to these provinces in South Africa

South Africa’s economic hub of Gauteng, home to over 16 million people, remains the province of choice for both international and South African migration, with the Western Cape increasingly on its heels.

This was revealed in Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA’s) 2025 mid-year population estimates.

Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African population, with approximately 16.10 million people, over a quarter of the population, living in the province.

While an estimated 629,000 people are expected to leave the province between 2021 and 2026, more than 1.4 million people would have moved in during the same period, giving it a massive net gain of around +786,900 people.

This is followed by the Western Cape, with about 181,400 expected to leave during the period, but an impressive 500,300 people moving in.

Its net migration, therefore, stands at about +319,000, making it the second-largest receiving province after Gauteng.

Cross-border migration into South Africa adds significant flows, particularly into Gauteng (over 403,000) and the Western Cape (over 105,000).

These international inflows strongly boosted the positive migration balances of the country’s main economic hubs.

North West sees close to 197,000 people leave, but inflows are much higher at about 305,700, giving a strong net gain of approximately +108,400.

Province	Out-migrants	In-migrants	Net migration
Gauteng (GP)	629,301	1,416,204	+786,903
Western Cape (WC)	181,393	500,347	+318,953
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)	317,706	349,182	+31,476
Mpumalanga (MP)	219,958	302,450	+82,492
North West (NW)	196,988	305,410	+108,422
Northern Cape (NC)	84,295	91,526	+7,232
Free State (FS)	160,536	147,558	-12,978
Limpopo (LP)	433,748	276,056	-157,692
Eastern Cape (EC)	498,149	198,686	-299,462

Provinces that are bleeding people

KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Mpumalanga, and the Northern Cape are all expected to record net inflows, though at different scales.

KwaZulu-Natal sits with about 317,700 departures and 349,200 arrivals, resulting in a modest gain of roughly +31,500.

Mpumalanga stood out more strongly, attracting over 302,000 people against 220,000 departures, for a gain of around +82,500.

The Northern Cape, while experiencing much smaller flows, still managed a slight net increase of about +7,200.

During the 2021–2026 period, several provinces are projected to bleed people, with the Eastern Cape standing out as the hardest hit.

Nearly half a million residents are expected to leave the province, while only about 198,700 move in, leaving it with a staggering net migration loss of roughly −299,500.

This cements its role as one of the country’s largest sending provinces.

The Free State follows a similar, though less dramatic, pattern. Outflows of just over 160,500 people outweigh inflows of around 147,600, producing a moderate net loss of about −13,000.

Limpopo also faces significant population decline through migration. The province is expected to lose close to 433,700 residents while attracting only 276,100 newcomers.

With a net loss of around −157,700, it emerges as another key province struggling to retain its population.

These losses can largely be attributed to structural challenges such as high unemployment, limited economic opportunities, poor service delivery, and underdeveloped infrastructure, which continue to push people out in search of better prospects elsewhere.

Why people still choose Gauteng

Migration to Gauteng and the Western Cape continues to shape South Africa’s demographic and economic landscape, with each province attracting people for distinct yet overlapping reasons.

Gauteng, the country’s economic powerhouse that contributes around a third of the country’s GDP, remains the leading destination for internal and international migrants.

As home to Johannesburg, Pretoria/Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni, it offers the most diverse job market, career growth opportunities, and higher salaries across sectors.

Historical patterns of labour migration, dating back to the discovery of gold and diamonds, have entrenched Gauteng’s role as a magnet for workers from rural provinces and neighbouring countries.

Today, the trend persists: between 2021 and 2026, the province is projected to record a net in-migration of around 790,000 people, including over 400,000 international arrivals.

Its population has grown from 9.3 million in 2002 to more than 16 million, fuelled largely by this continuous inflow.

Affordability further strengthens Gauteng’s pull. Despite its size and significance, Johannesburg remains the most cost-effective of South Africa’s major metros.

This makes it appealing to young adults, professionals, and families seeking value for money alongside economic opportunity.

The majority of migrants are aged 20 to 39, with men making up a substantial share of the inflow, reflecting the province’s demand for working-age individuals.

The Western Cape, by contrast, is closely associated with lifestyle migration but is increasingly an economic hub in its own right.

Its scenic coastal setting, reputation for good governance, and stronger delivery of services have bolstered investor confidence, creating an environment where businesses and high-skilled workers are keen to settle.

The province also attracts wealthier migrants and returning expatriates who invest in high-end properties, while smaller coastal towns continue to grow in popularity as retirement and work from home destinations.