Falling like dominoes: The crisis in South Africa that threatens national security

South Africa’s non-revenue water (NRW) crisis, one of many in the sector, will bankrupt municipalities if it continues at this rate, making them “fall like dominoes… triggering instability to the extent that national security will be threatened.”

This is the warning from Dr. Anthony Turton from the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of Free State (UFS).

Broadly, NRW is the volume of potable water distributed through municipal systems for which the municipality receives no income. This includes water lost through leaks and illegal connections.

Water challenges vary across the country, but municipalities with the most severe issues often struggle with exceptionally high levels of NRW.

NRW nationally is rising to unsustainable levels, with nearly half the water piped through the country’s infrastructure being lost through leaks, theft or nonpayment.

Limpopo accounts for the highest NRW at 56.7%, followed by the Northern Cape at 56.2%.

In Johannesburg, the nation’s economic hub with significant water woes, the water utility reports nearly 45% NRW, alongside a R27 billion infrastructure backlog and delayed projects.

This creates a vicious cycle: decades of underinvestment have left infrastructure aging and prone to breakdowns, which in turn leads to mounting losses in potential municipal revenue.

According to Turton, while this is just one of many crises threatening water security, the high NRW levels make municipal bankruptcy an almost inevitable outcome if nothing changes.

As of late July 2025, municipalities owe water boards more than R25 billion, an amount that has been steadily increasing.

“Municipalities will fall like dominoes. Each will then look to the government for a bailout but tax revenue is under extreme pressure because the economy is failing so taxes aren’t coming in,” said Turton.

“This means that the dominoes that fall will eventually result in a spectacular system-wide failure.”

Turton explained that this is likely to coincide with internal unrest among civil servants when their salaries cannot be paid for the same reasons.

This will become a pincer movement where two forces meet.

“The external forces will be from society as they begin to show anger and riot. The internal forces will be from government employees whose demands for salary increases cannot be met, and they are swamped by their own debt.”

Ultimately, these two pathways, external and internal, are both about financial mismanagement, said Turton.

“So we can say that NRW is a root cause of municipal failure to address the water crisis, and at the same time, NRW triggers instability to the extent that national security will be threatened.”

The severity of the issues in the sector

Turton explained that water woes across the country are multifaceted, yet often deliberately misrepresented to take the blame away from government failures.

According to the expert, simple facts that need to be conveyed and understood by the public include:

• All the municipalities have poor infrastructure, but some are worse than others;
• All have substantial NRW issues. Some more than others;
• Population has almost trebled in the last four decades so more people need jobs and water;
• Internal migration to the cities has placed additional pressure on all services, including water and sewage;
• Almost all municipalities have purged their staff of technical skills and replaced them with loyal but incompetent cadres;
• Messaging from the Platform for a Water Secure Gauteng (PWSG) is that society needs to use less water, but this message ignores population and migration stats;
• Unless more water is placed into the system, leaks and all, the economy will fail, jobs won’t be created, and social instability will grow.

Turton said that since the Jacob Zuma presidency, he has consistently urged the Presidency to recognise water as an economic enabler.

Without reliable supply, businesses cannot survive, investors will not commit, and jobs cannot be created.

Despite efforts under both Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa, including establishing a Business Water Chamber, he said that the Presidency has shown little interest, with repeated attempts at engagement being blocked.

Accountability and consequences desperately needed

He argued that the core issue lies in the Constitution, which lacks accountability and, through the Cooperative Governance Clause, prevents the DWS from regulating effectively across tiers of government.

To restore investor confidence and create jobs, he suggested either amending this clause or establishing an independent water regulator.

Turton further recommended ring-fencing municipal finances, using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to build capacity, and depoliticising water management by appointing only technically competent leaders.

WaterCAN’s Dr Ferrial Adam recently told Newsday that “the majority of dry taps we see today are not caused by natural scarcity but by governance failures.”

“Billions have been spent on upgrades that never materialised or were riddled with corruption,” said Adam.

“The problem is less about not having water than not managing water.” “Without competent governance, no amount of rainfall or dam storage will translate into reliable taps.”

WaterCAN has consistently called for:

• Professionalising water services by ending political appointments and hiring qualified engineers.
• Transparent reporting of water quality and infrastructure data.
• Ringfenced budgets to prevent diversion of water funds.
• Expanding citizen initiatives like Water Testing Week.
• Stronger independent oversight through Chapter 9 bodies and civil society action.