Disorganised defence and police forces make a coup in South Africa unlikely

South Africa faces no immediate threat of a coup d’état, according to government officials and independent analysts, despite recent warnings in the National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Intelligence Estimate (NIE).

In July 2025, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni acknowledged that the government had identified the possibility of an attempt to overthrow the state.

She made the remarks during a media briefing in Cape Town, where she released the NSS and NIE for the sixth administration.

“We have listed the risks. One of the risks is the risk of a coup d’état. We have identified it and put measures in place to mitigate against it,” Ntshavheni said, emphasising that no such attempt had materialised.

“Not that there aren’t people planning, they are. However, we are continuously monitoring them and making sure that we deal with those,” she added, highlighting the strength of the security cluster.

“The security cluster is solid. It can do its work.”

“There are men and women in various capacities who continue to work as patriots for the protection of this country,” Ntshavheni said, referring to personnel across the intelligence, defence, and police services.

Ntshavheni’s coup d’etat red flag came just a week after KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, protected by heavily armed police officers, accused police management and other law enforcement agencies of colluding with criminals.

Coup very unlikely, says analysts

Independent experts largely agreed that a coup in South Africa is unlikely.

Military expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman did not believe there was a serious risk of a military coup in South Africa, telling the Citizen that the generals he might have doubts about were retired already.

“I also do not see many of our officers being taken with that idea,” he said.

“There might be more risk among some of the corrupt former police generals, but I do not see the police as a coherent enough body for that.”

The planning issues were echoed by Dr Frans Cronje, director of Frans Cronje Private Clients and a political and economic analyst, speaking at the recent Biznews Conference.

He said that “a coup d’état needs a lot of good logistical planning, hard work, and determination. Those are not things associated with the current National Defence Force.”

Gareth Newham of the Institute for Security Studies speaking on CapeTalk, said that the minister’s remarks as “quite strange” but suggested she aimed to reassure the public about the agency’s vigilance.

He noted that coups typically occur in countries with weaker governance, unlike South Africa, which has a robust media and civil society.

Economist Dawie Roodt echoed this view, citing the fragmented state of the army.

“The South African National Defence Force is so disorganised that we basically don’t have an army in the country. The same goes for the police,” he said. “I don’t think there is a real threat of a coup in South Africa.”

Roodt cautioned, however, that political instability remains a concern, even if a coup is unlikely.

Commenting on the risk of a coup d’état in South Africa, many experts laughed off the idea as too complicated for the fragmented and dysfunctional South African National Defence Force.

SANDF faces big challenges

SANDF in freefall

While the risk of a coup is low, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is facing a serious decline, experts say.

Chris Hattingh, the Democratic Alliance’s spokesperson for Defence and Military Veterans, said that the SANDF is “in tatters,” citing poor leadership, corruption, historical underfunding, and misaligned national defence objectives as key challenges.

“This is a force without direction,” Hattingh said. “Not a single milestone from the 2015 Defence Review was implemented, which basically means that the SANDF is rudderless.”

Hitting key operational capabilities, Hattingh noted, “The SANDF has almost 200 aircraft, and 16 will be available on a good day. Our submarine fleet is basically gone, and I don’t think it can be recovered.”

Earlier this year, the DA reported that the Air Force would need roughly R8 billion to restore key platforms like Rooivalk and Gripen jets, while the Navy would require around R700 million per vessel to refit submarines and frigates.

Leleti Maluleke from Good Governance Africa echoed these concerns, saying, “Despite its strategic importance, [the SANDF] faces serious problems that threaten its operational effectiveness. Underfunding, inadequate resources, maintenance failures, and internal discipline issues have weakened the force.”

The deterioration of South Africa’s defence capabilities is mirrored by challenges in the local military industry.

Denel, the state-owned aerospace and weapons manufacturer, was once a major player in the international arms community, but years of mismanagement and state capture have left it struggling.

Armscor, the SANDF’s arms procurement agency, faces similar constraints. With 68% of its budget dedicated to salaries, only a fraction remains for operations, maintenance, equipment, and infrastructure.

Dr Moses Khanyile, director of the Centre for Military Studies at Stellenbosch University, said South Africa’s R57 billion defence budget is insufficient to maintain a modern military capable of addressing internal or external threats.

He called for increased investment in research and development to prevent further technological decline.