The party eating away at the DA’s Western Cape dominance

The Patriotic Alliance (PA) is proving a significant threat to South Africa’s two largest parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC), at the municipal level in the buildup to the 2026 Local Government Elections.

This follows the party, led by Sports, Arts, and Culture Minister Gayton McKenzie, snapping up by-election after by-election, especially in the Western Cape, which has previously been a DA stronghold.

During the 2021 Local Government Elections (LGE), the Patriotic Alliance received 2.36% of all votes in the Western Cape, winning 28 seats in municipalities across the province.

In comparison, the DA held the majority of support in the province at 54.26% and 405 seats, leading 21 councils and controlling nine.

While not nearly as strong, the ANC was also a major contender in the province, winning 20.38% of the vote and 177 seats across municipalities.

However, recent by-election outcomes in the province show that support for the main contestants may be waning, with several voters favouring the PA.

By-elections are held to elect a new ward councillor, with the electorate voting directly for the candidate they want to represent their ward instead of for the party.

A by-election can be necessary in the case of a council being dissolved, a councillor’s death, resignation, or expulsion.

For instance, in July, PA councillor Veronica Maralack-Boonzaaier was elected in Ward 27 (Amstelhof) of the Drakenstein Municipality, which encompasses the towns of Wellington and Paarl.

The party had only obtained 1% of the vote in the 2021 LGE. However, skyrocketed to 43%, with the DA dropping from 58% to 39%.

Elections analyst Wayne Sussman said this was a major step forward for the party, given the importance of the Cape Winelands, which includes towns like Stellenbosch and Paarl, in the Western Cape.

“This is so important for the PA because the Cape Winelands District is the second-most populous district in the Western Cape after the City of Cape Town,” he said.

“Voters in Stellenbosch and Paarl have generally been more loyal to the DA than in other parts of the province. So this means that the PA are edging closer and closer to Cape Town.”

“I would sense great concern in the DA headquarters following this outcome.”

Sussman added that increased support for the PA could also be attributed to Patricia de Lille’s GOOD Party’s failure to compete in the by-election.

A few weeks prior, the PA upset another DA stronghold by taking Ward 9 of the Mossel Bay Municipality, in the Garden Route District.

Similar to what would happen in Drakenstein a few weeks later, the PA saw a significant growth in support from 7% in the 2021 LGE to 51% in the by-election outcome.

Sussman said that both these results are promising for McKenzie’s party going into the 2026 LGE.

PA making inroads in the Eastern Cape

However, this increased support for the party seems to be stretching beyond the borders of the Western Cape, having recently claimed its first ward in the Eastern Cape. 

During a by-election for Ward 1 of the Kou Kamma Municipality, the PA won 48% of the vote, an increase from 33% in the 2021 LGE.

The PA’s victory came at the expense of the ANC, which dropped by 46% in 2021 to 43%, and the DA, which saw support decline from 21% in the most recent LGEs to only 9%.

Like the Western Cape and the DA, the Eastern Cape has been an ANC stronghold for some time, with 62.99% of support going towards the party in 2021.

This meant that the ANC claimed 955 seats, led 31 councils, and controlled 29. The DA is the second-largest party, having won 15.25% of the vote in 2021.

On the other hand, the PA only obtained five seats during the elections, with 0.55% of the vote.

ANC slipping

While much can still change before 2026, analysts believe the ANC’s days of single-party dominance, particularly in urban centres, are over.

Associate Professor Zwelethu Jolobe from the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Department of Political Studies told NewsDay that recent election data shows that the ANC “don’t have the kind of support nationally that usually pulled them through in terms of winning most councils.”

“Parties don’t usually perform particularly well in local elections, and turnout tends to be relatively low”, and as such, “generally, most parties don’t put as much energy or resources into local elections as they would in a national one,” explained Jolobe.

“Remember that all the metros have historically been highly contested when it comes to local politics, which was already the case even before the significant drop in support for the ANC.”

“But now, with such a sharp decline of the ANC, it’s reasonable to conclude that many parties believe they have a real shot at gaining significant ground,” added the associate professor.

Jolobe noted that a big question is whether smaller political parties that have acted as kingmakers will return to councils, given the significant costs of campaigns.