South Africa has been in decline since 2008 – Thabo Mbeki

South Africa progressed significantly from 1994 to 2008, but since 2008, it has been “moving in the wrong direction, said former President Thabo Mbeki.

Speaking on behalf of the Thabo Mbeki Foundation at the African Peace and Security Dialogue, Mbeki placed South Africa in the broader context of African independence. 

“We got our democracy in 1994, and many people said: ‘miracle, miracle’, and yes, the country developed quite well,” he said. 

Mbeki served as deputy president under Nelson Mandela, handling most duties of state while Mandela presided over the process of national reconciliation and improving international relations.

When Mbeki became president, he chose ANC deputy Jacob Zuma as his deputy president. In 2005, he relieved Zuma of his duties due to his involvement in a corruption scandal, which caused a rift in the ANC.

Mbeki was removed as ANC president at the Polokwane conference in December 2007, when he lost the vote to Zuma, who went on to become the ANC’s presidential candidate for the 2009 general election.

In his recent speech, Mbeki split South African democratic development into two eras: from 1994 to 2008, and from 2008 onwards. 

“Between 1994 and 2008, the number of people employed grew by 6 million, from 8 million employed to 14 million employed during that period,” he said. 

“So the notion that this was jobless growth is a lot of nonsense. The economy expanded, and that’s why it was able to take on these millions of new employees,” he said. 

Under Mbeki’s presidency, the official unemployment rate peaked in 2002 at 27%, which then gradually declined to 21% by 2008. It has now risen to 33%.

He continued to say that the next 15 years, leading up to today, were a process of undoing this growth. 

Mbeki said that this is caused by those who did not celebrate when democracy was won in 1994.

“When we were busy celebrating in 1994, toasting one another, there were some people who were saying, ‘there’s nothing to celebrate’ and ‘aluta continua’– the struggle continues.”

Mbeki said that enemies of the ANC have been trying to bring the party down, and that is part of the reason for the country’s economic decline. “They are succeeding.”

The phrase aluta continua is sometimes used by ANC members or aligned groups advocating for more radical economic transformation or policies aligned with the National Democratic Revolution (NDR).

This could include factions pushing for accelerated land reform, nationalisation, or stronger Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) measures, often associated with the ANC’s left-leaning or populist wing.

Growth post 1994

Between 2000 and 2008, during Thabo Mbeki’s presidency, South Africa’s GDP per capita grew by 28.2%, marking his tenure as the most impactful for economic growth.

In contrast, under Nelson Mandela’s presidency from 1994 to 1999, GDP per capita increased by approximately 10.4%.

The global financial crisis of 2009 coincided with Jacob Zuma’s assumption of the presidency, resulting in a modest GDP per capita growth of 3.5% over his term from 2009 to 2018.

Under President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, GDP per capita declined by approximately 5.6% from 2018 to 2023.

Since the ANC assumed power in 1994, several policies have been introduced to address apartheid-era inequalities, particularly through economic empowerment and labor protections.

However, critics, including economists, business groups, and international organisations such as the World Bank and IMF, argue that some of these policies have worsened the economic situation, benefiting just a handful of well-connected elites.

They say that it has introduced rigidities, increased compliance costs, deterred foreign investment, and contributed to South Africa’s low GDP growth, averaging ~1% annually since 2010, compared to 3-4% in the 2000s.

Cadre deployment was formalised as ANC policy at the 1997 Mafikeng Conference, with Thabo Mbeki as a key architect, though it originated in the ANC’s exile-era strategies.

Implemented through the 1998 Deployment Committee, it has shaped South Africa’s governance but is widely criticised for enabling corruption and slowing economic growth.

Corruption and load-shedding have significantly hampered South Africa’s economic growth, exacerbating the challenges posed by certain ANC policies.

Since the early 2000s, systemic corruption, particularly during Zuma’s presidency (2009–2018), drained public resources through state capture.

The Zondo Commission estimated over R500 billion lost to corrupt practices involving state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet.

This diverted funds from infrastructure and social programs, eroding investor confidence and reducing foreign direct investment by 50% from 2008 to 2023, per World Bank data.

Concurrently, load-shedding, driven by Eskom’s mismanagement, aging infrastructure, and policy delays, began intensifying in 2008 and peaked with Stage 6 outages in 2022–2023, costing the economy R1 billion daily, according to Stellenbosch University estimates.

These power cuts disrupted manufacturing, mining, and small businesses, contributing to an average GDP growth rate of just 0.6% under Ramaphosa and a 5.6% decline in GDP per capita.

The GNU has visions, but no plans – Mbeki

The Bureau for Economic Research (BER)  found that state capture, loadshedding, and policy uncertainty played a central role in slowing down economic growth.

Mbeki has been critical of economic policies implemented under Ramaphosa and the Government of National Unity (GNU), particularly the National Development Plan and South Africa’s strained trade relationship with the United States. 

On the National Development Plan and the Medium-Term Development Plan, Mbeki said that these documents are visions that lack the necessary steps to bring them to life. 

Speaking to students at the University of South Africa (UNISA) in March, he said concerns about economic growth should have been reflected in these plans. 

“Whether the GNU thinks the way I do, I don’t know. But I am saying, as a country, we need to get back to a situation where we do actual planning about the economic future,” he said. 

He added that these visions will not implement themselves. In the same lecture, Mbeki expressed concerns that South Africa was making an enemy of the United States.

This was before the US implemented a 30% unilateral tariff on South African exports. 

“Personally, it’s a matter that worries me because as a country, we don’t need enemies. We have too many problems for us to be nurturing enemies of any kind,” he said.