The important 2026 election battlegrounds in South Africa

With declining trust in incumbents, increased competition, and a proliferation of new parties, the 2026 local elections are set to reshape South Africa’s political landscape, particularly in large cities.

The African National Congress (ANC), which has governed nationally since 1994, suffered a sharp decline in support during the 2024 general election. It received just 40% of the vote, its worst performance to date.

However, this was not an isolated result. The ANC’s declining electoral dominance has been unfolding over several election cycles, with the party already losing outright control of some of the major cities in the 2016 municipal elections.

This continued into the 2021 local government elections, which marked a historic low for the ANC, with its support dropping to 45.59%. This was the first time the party fell below 50% in any democratic poll.

Of the eight metros, the ANC was only able to clinch a majority in Mangaung and Buffalo City, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) once again gaining a majority in the City of Cape Town, albeit with a smaller margin.

The results reflected a broader national trend: the ANC’s declining grip on urban centres, growing voter fragmentation, and the rise of smaller and newer parties, particularly in metropolitan areas, taking votes from more established parties and making these councils quite fragmented.

Driving much of the change is mounting public frustration in consistent service delivery failures.

A Human Sciences Research Council study found that citizen satisfaction with municipal performance has remained consistently low, with only three in ten South Africans expressing satisfaction with their local government.

The 2021 metro results

South Africa’s 2021 municipal elections revealed a fragmented political landscape, with major parties losing ground and smaller parties emerging as kingmakers in hung councils across key metros.

In Johannesburg, once an ANC stronghold, the party’s seats fell from 121 in 2016 to 91 (33.60%), while the DA slipped from 104 to 71 (26.14%), signalling a broader erosion of support for both.

Tshwane mirrored this trend, with the ANC’s vote share dropping from 43% to 35% and the DA’s from 41% to 32%, leaving neither with a majority.

Ekurhuleni saw similar shifts, as the ANC’s support declined from 49% to 38.19%, losing its majority, while the DA’s seats fell from 77 to 65.

In eThekwini, the ANC lost its outright majority for the first time, its vote share falling from 56.01% to 42.02%, reducing its seats from 126 to 96.

Nelson Mandela Bay also reflected fragmentation, with the ANC securing 42 seats and the DA 48, both far from a majority. Even in ANC strongholds, cracks appeared.

In Buffalo City, the ANC held 60 seats (down from 61), while the DA grew to 24 (from 20) and the EFF to 13 (from 8).

In Mangaung, the ANC narrowly retained control with 50 seats, one fewer than in 2016.

The City of Cape Town remained a DA bastion, but its majority weakened, dropping from 154 to 135 seats, with the ANC, as official opposition, falling from 57 to 43 seats.

This fragmentation, driven by declining support for dominant parties and the rise of smaller ones, has enabled minor parties to wield significant influence in coalition negotiations, often determining which major party governs in hung councils.

Expert analysis

While much can still change before 2026, many analysts believe the ANC’s days of single-party dominance, particularly in urban centres, are over.

Associate Professor Zwelethu Jolobe from the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Department of Political Studies told NewsDay that recent election data shows that the ANC “don’t have the kind of support nationally that usually pulled them through in terms of winning most councils.”

“Parties don’t usually perform particularly well in local elections, and turnout tends to be relatively low” and as such, “generally, most parties don’t put as much energy or resources into local elections as they would in a national one,” explained Jolobe.

“Keep in mind that all the metros have historically been highly contested when it comes to local politics, which was already the case even before the significant drop in support for the ANC.”

But now, with such a sharp decline of the ANC, it’s reasonable to conclude that many parties believe they have a real shot at gaining significant ground,” added the associate professor.

Jolobe noted that a big question is whether smaller political parties that have acted as kingmakers will return to councils, given the significant costs of campaigns.

On top of this, as the number of viable political options grows, so too does the complexity of voter decision-making, impacting all parties.

Jolobe pointed to the emergence of new political players, such as the MK Party, as a key development.

While many expected the MK Party to primarily draw support from the ANC in the general elections, it also impacted the EFF, illustrating that breakaway parties can erode backing from multiple fronts, not just their party of origin.

Adding to the ANC’s challenges is the decision by its longtime alliance partner, the South African Communist Party (SACP), to contest the municipal elections, much to the ANC’s dismay.

Meanwhile, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) has made significant by-election gains at the expense of the ANC, DA and GOOD.

Elections analyst Wayne Sussman noted that the PA is affecting both major parties “across the length and breadth” of the Western Cape.

“They will be very confident, and it is now clear that they are the main threat to the DA. All outright majorities of the DA in the Western Cape are now potentially under threat,” he said.

Meanwhile, the MK Party continues to chip away at ANC support in by-elections.

Overall, “we don’t know about how the stack of cards will sit in the end, but what we do know is that it’s going to be a much more competitive election, particularly in majority of the big cities,” said Jolobe.