Official NSC pass rate is 88%, but the ‘real pass rate’ is 56.9%

In 2025, over 656,000 learners passed the National Senior Certificate, amounting to a pass rate of 88%, an increase of 0.7% from 2024, the highest pass rate in South Africa’s history.

The top performing provinces were Gauteng in third place, having achieved a pass rate of 89.06%. In second place was the Free State with a pass rate of 89.73%, and taking first place was KwaZulu-Natal with a pass rate of 90.6%.

Over 66% of Bachelor’s degree passes were achieved by no-fee schools. “You have shown the country what is possible, you have proven that talent lives everywhere,” Minister of Basic Education Siviwer Gwarube said.

However, the minister took the opportunity to say that these numbers do not tell the full story of South Africa’s education system.

She said that matric is not an event, but a 12-year-long journey and that the pass rate must not be understood on its own.

“Numbers matter, but they matter most when we understand what is behind them. This was the largest class in history,” she said. “Quantity is only the starting point; the next phase is about quality.”

The minister said that of the 2025 matric class, 1.2 million learners entered grade 1 in 2014. By 2021, there was a 4% decrease, indicating a “very high retention rate between grades 1 and 10”.

“However, between grades 10 and 12, a large number of learners begin to repeat, others leave the schooling system,” she said.

The minister said this indicates that the system is not yet delivering quality at the desired stage. She said that where there is low retention alongside high performance, it must be questioned.

“If any learner is being discouraged, then we must find it, we must stop it, and we must replace it with early support.”

The biggest system health test, she explained, is not only the pass rate, but the number of learners who make it all the way to grade 12.

Gwarube continues a long-held Democratic Alliance (DA) tradition of clarifying the national pass rate with the ‘real pass rate’, which accounts for learners who do not make it to writing their final exams.

For several years before 2024, the DA released this figure shortly after matric results were published, calculating the students who dropped out after Grade 10 and before writing their matric exams, disputing the official pass rate released by the Department of Basic Education.

Calculating the dropout rate from Grade 10 accounts for those who leave school after Grade 9 to complete their matric at technical and vocational education and training institutions (TVET).

In this calculation, 1,152,000 learners were enrolled in Grade 10 in 2021. Of these, 715,000 made it to their final exams without dropping out. 437,000, or 37%, dropped out before their exams.

Of these students, 656,000, an official 88%, passed the exams. This means that the “real pass rate” for the class of 2025 is actually 56.9%. This is a slight increase from 2024’s figure, calculated by BusinessTech, of 56%.

For 2023, the party said that the official bachelor’s pass rate of 82.9% dropped to 55.3% when dropouts are acknowledged. This was an increase from 2022’s 54.6% figure.

The numbers indicate, despite the high dropout rate, that a gradual improvement is happening over time.

Almost 40% of learners aren’t making it to matric

In January 2024, the DA said that this “real pass rate” is an “excellent indicator” of the success of the Basic Education Minister and the Department itself.

It further accused the ANC government of focusing on quantity over quality and said, “this skewed focus on how many learners can be pushed through the system, should be scrapped in favour of a focus on the quality of skills gained.”

Before the class of 2025 began writing their final exams, Build One South Africa (BOSA) calculated that, of the 1.2 million learners who enrolled in grade 1 in 2014, only 715,000 registered to write matric exams.

“We cannot celebrate a 30% pass mark while ignoring the 50% of learners who never even make it to matric,” said BOSA Leader Mmusi Maimane.

Maimane added that schools are overcrowded, underfunded, unsafe and unsupported and push learners out. He said the Minister owes the nation an honest account of how the system has failed these children.

This was echoed by DA spokesperson on Basic Education, Nazley Shariff, who told Newsday that the party still maintains the belief that an analysis of the education system needs to look beyond the official pass rate.

Shariff said that, while the minister praises the success of the class of 2025, it is important to continue being honest about the state of South African education.

“It’s not like we can say the system is incredible and it’s working perfectly. It’s important for the minister to speak honestly and truthfully and not hide behind glossy statements,” she said.

Shariff said that the education system requires attention, particularly in the area of foundational education, which the minister is currently working on.

“We have to have an honest conversation around what the issues are, especially in foundational learning. We need to be making sure that more kids make it to matric and can write and read for meaning,” Shariff said.

“For so many years, no work has been done in foundational education,” said Shariff. This is a key focus for the party and for Gwarube, Shariff said, forming part of the DA’s 2024 manifesto.